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Can science be used to stop crimes before they happen? Jonathan McCambridge talks to one of the world's leading experts on crime science and reveals how the PSNI is using new ideas to turn the tide on organised criminals The new science of fighting crime The trends of crime in Northern Ireland are constantly evolving. Organised gangs use new technology to create fresh money-making scams and those who target the vulnerable are becoming more sophisticated and harder to catch. The ever changing dynamics of the criminal world mean the police face immense challenges. For many the solutions are simple — more police on the beat and more detectives leads to more crooks being caught. All the political parties are in a race to be the most oppressive about crime and the media drives their narrow agenda forward. But, increasingly, new, more academic ideas are gaining acceptance in the fight to make our streets safer. Can the study of epidemiology, physics, engineering, economics, applied psychology, statistics, geography, town planning and even architecture prove to be more useful tools in targeting organised crime gangs? Even more intriguing, could the use of such a scientific approach actually detect trends and stop crimes before they happen? There are around 70 civilian crime analysts in Northern Ireland working at a local level in every district command unit to tackle low-level crime and, also, centrally against serious crime. They have undergone rigorous training so they are equipped with technical and problem solving skills which helps the PSNI identify crime patterns which then leads to targeting of resources. Professor Gloria Laycock is the director of the Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, the first centre of its kind in the world. Recently she visited Northern Ireland to talk to PSNI officers and local crime analysts. She also spoke exclusively to the Belfast Telegraph about how everybody in the province needs to change their attitude to crime. “There has to be a sea change in the way we think about crime; we need to begin seeing crime as problems which have to be solved, not incidents which have to be responded to. “There are some organised criminals, serious offenders who have to be caught. You need to bring science to bear really hard on them. “That means police officers thinking like scientists, assessing evidence in a different way, testing hypothesis. This means police re-tooling and re-learning techniques like forensics. “If you follow-up a crime scene relentlessly and quickly, fast track the DNA, do not have police hanging around for weeks, make sure everybody knows what their role is, then you stand a much higher chance of solving a crime. “What the PSNI should be trying to do is get to a situation where they can legitimately say they are controlling crime and managing it downwards and be able tell you why it has dropped down. “Crime science is about thinking scientifically, getting the police to think in the same way a scientist would think. The lifeblood is data, it must be accurate, turned around quickly and entered on a computer system which makes sense to everyone. “It is not just about putting marks on a map and saying there is a hotspot; the analyst should be saying why is that there?” As the political situation in Northern Ireland stabilises, and the terrorist threat lessens, Professor Laycock believes that the province is vulnerable to an increase in both organised and low level crime. “As the terrorist threat declines, the infrastructure for organised crime gangs is already there and there are people who are potentially very violent who can switch readily to organised crime. “Any place where there is money to be made organised crime will flourish; illegal dumping and credit card fraud are just two crime types that Northern Ireland is vulnerable to. “There will also be an increase in anti-social behaviour as more young people have the freedom to go out on the streets; this means more alcohol being taken and leads to other anti-social crime problems. “People talk about the late night drinking culture in Belfast city centre but you have to look at it scientifically rather than just complaining about all the young people. “If I was the police officer in charge of the city centre then I would be asking what pubs do the problems occur in? What is it about some pubs which makes them worse than others? Are there pubs and clubs which are serving alcohol to under-age kids? “I would then close down the pubs which served to kids. The others would get the message pretty quickly. Tell the pubs that every drunk we pick up, we will find out where they had their last drink. “I would also put up the price of alcohol massively, so that people can still afford a drink but not so many. You need to get tough with the pubs and the off-licences, not the kids who are buying off them. “You also have to ask how many bars do you need in Belfast city centre? There is no infrastructure so it is mayhem at closing time, there are not enough taxis to get people home and this is why you have the problem; the answer is not to arrest all the drunks. “People have to realise that kids push boundaries, that is what teenagers do, particularly teenage boys. If they have got no other boundaries to push then they will hang around on street corners to push those. “We should not be blaming them but trying to understand that this is part of being a young adult in a society like Northern Ireland. “They need something to push against, either we lower the barrier and show more tolerance or we give them something else to do because they are going to do something.” Professor Laycock said that local police commanders needed to be like hospital consultants who understand crime like a disease and how to control it. “If I see two police officers on the street rather than being reassured I think what has gone wrong? “We need to be very clear what kind of society we are aiming for, not aiming for one where we have police on patrol but for one where we have a society which is self policed. “If you look at domestic burglaries in Northern Ireland you may see there is repeat victimisation, if you have been a victim once you are more likely to be a victim again. “This also means that immediate neighbours are at risk, but only for a few days. “In this way crime is like a little virus, an infection which spreads quickly over a small area, then it morphs. “This makes sense because if a burglar goes into an area then he will work there for a short time before the police catch on. “By rapidly analysing the data you can start to predict where the incidents are going to be. Then you can try to prevent them by wrapping a cocoon around the area, the same way you deal with an infection. “That is what crime science is about — taking concepts from other sciences. By studying diseases we can learn about how crime works.” Mark Evans, the PSNI's director of Analytical Services believes that the new ideas about how to tackle crime are already being used successfully in Northern Ireland. He said: “Crime in Northern Ireland is morphing, often very quickly. There are always new trends and opportunities. “In order to be effective in that kind of environment we have to be much smarter about tackling crime. We are developing innovative new ways of thinking about crime problems and using international crime science minds to help us. “We are collating and using data in new ways to really define the problem in local areas and in relation to serious crime “By doing that properly and using the combined skills of detectives, scenes of crime officers, analysts and uniformed officers we can open up new avenues of investigation.” Mr Evans said the best way to tackle an outbreak of domestic burglaries was not to put more officers on the beat. “If that has any effect at all, it will displace the problem. “By analysing all the available data we can determine commonalities, the type of equipment used, time of day, certain types of doors and come at the problem from these angles to detect and prevent further offences. “In one recent case we had success because a spate of domestic burglaries had been analysed, and a certain type of pliers was identified — this led to the apprehension of a prolific burglar. “If the whole team of SOCO, analysts, detectives and uniform officers had not been cohesive, if the analysis had not been done and the local police briefed then the burglaries would still be happening.”
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