What kind of world for our children?

James D. Wolfensohn, President of the World Bank, on the eve of
the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development

Trends can be changed
The United Nations summit in Monterrey last March spurred poor countries to commit to improve their policies and governance, in exchange for promises by rich countries to deliver more aid and open their markets to trade. The World Summit on Sustainable Development that starts in Johannesburg on Monday gives us the chance to put those words into action.

What should the world expect from Johannesburg? Perhaps the best way to answer that is to look ahead and imagine what kind of world we want, not just now but for our children and our children's children. Are we going to leave as our legacy a poorer globe that has more hungry people, an erratic climate, fewer forests and less biodiversity — a place that is even more socially volatile than today?

According to the World Bank's new World Development Report 2003, released this past Wednesday in Johannesburg, the next 50 years could see the global population swell by half, to 9 billion people, and GDP increase fourfold to $140 trillion. Given current trends in production and consumption, social and environmental strains threaten to derail development efforts and erode living standards unless we design better policies and institutions.

Development policies will need to be even more closely focused on protecting forests, fisheries and farms — and making them more productive — if the poor are to narrow the gap that has emerged in the past 50 years. Misguided policies and weak governance have contributed to environmental disasters, growing income inequality and social upheaval in some countries, often resulting in deep deprivation, riots or refugees fleeing famine or civil wars.

If we stay on the road we are on, the signs do not appear very encouraging. By 2050 the world's annual output of carbon dioxide will have more than tripled, while 9 billion people — 3 billion more than we have today and mostly living in developing countries — will be tapping into the earth's water, adding more stress on an already strained water supply.

Food needs will more than double, a grim prospect for Africa, where food production is currently falling behind the pace of population growth.

Globally, 1.3 billion people already live on fragile land — arid zones, wetlands and forests — that cannot sustain them. By 2050, and for the first time in history, more people will be living in cities than in rural areas. Without better planning, the stresses from immigration and population shifts across the globe could create new social upheaval and desperate competition for already scare resources. Yet these trends also offer windows of opportunity, if leaders and policymakers meeting in Johannesburg muster the courage to pledge — and follow through on — bold actions over the next 10 to 15 years.

Most of the capital stock and infrastructure — housing, shops, factories, roads, power and water services — that will be needed by the growing population in coming decades does not yet exist. Better standards, increased efficiency and more inclusive means of decision-making could mean that these assets are built in ways that put fewer strains on society and the environment. As population growth slows, economic growth will translate more readily into lower poverty and higher incomes per capita — provided that development over the next few decades has been handled in a way that does not destroy the natural resources that underpin growth or erode critical social values, such as trust.

If individual incomes in the developing world grow by an average of 3.3 percent annually, they would reach $6,300 a year by 2050, nearly one-third more than that in current upper/middle-income countries. Such growth is already viewed as a modest goal by some leaders in the developing world. In the past two decades we have seen growth in many East Asian countries at an annual average of nearly twice that rate.

The basic human needs of ordinary people for shelter, food and clothing could be affordably met. Life expectancy would rise to 72 years in poor countries, compared with 58 today in those with the lowest incomes. The proportion of people who can read and write would rise to nearly 95 percent.

Of course, such robust economic growth would pose potentially enormous risks to the environment. Since rich nations are the greatest consumers of our common resources, they have a special responsibility to help the developing world address these risks.

We all must protect our forests and fisheries from overexploitation. We must halt soil degradation, and ensure that our water supplies are used efficiently. We must protect biologically diverse ecosystems, as they underpin the flow of goods and services essential to our economies and societies. We must limit emissions from factories, cars and households. Developing countries need to promote democracy, inclusiveness and transparency as they build the institutions to manage their resources. Rich countries should increase aid, support debt reduction, open markets to developing country exporters and help transfer technologies to prevent diseases, increase energy efficiency and bolster agricultural productivity.

Civil society can act as a voice for dispersed interests and provide independent oversight of public, private and nongovernmental performances. A socially responsible private sector, supported by good government, should create incentives for companies to pursue their interests while advancing environmental and social objectives.

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James D. Wolfensohn is president of the World Bank.
He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.
http://www.iht.com/articles/68479.html