EDMONTON

We're in the eye of a demographic storm

No surprise in rising rate of youth crime

We've had a terrible, disturbing rash of pointless murders in metro Edmonton recently. Murders committed primarily by young men pumped up with liquor and machismo.

Stabbings. Shootings. Beatings. The headlines are appalling. Some of these crimes are gang-related. But in the main, this isn't organized crime we're seeing. It's disorganized crime. These are impromptu rage killings, with little motive or purpose.

No wonder people are concerned. No wonder we're looking for answers. Or at the very least, for something to blame. But let's put recent events into a larger demographic context. For years, we've read national stories about the country's aging population.

Younger Population
But Edmonton isn't your average Canadian city. Our population is a lot younger than the norm. And our population of young men is particularly high. According to the 2005 municipal census, there were 33,731 young men between the ages of 20 and 24 in the city last year, making up almost 10 per cent of Edmonton's male population. In fact, young people between 20 and 24 are the single largest "population cohort" in our entire city. Add in the 25,421 male teens between 15 and 19, and the 31,713 young men between 25 and 29, and you quickly see the scope of the problem.

Last year, Edmonton had 90,865 young men in their "prime crime" years of 15 to 29. That's more than 25 per cent of our male population. By contrast, young men in that same age range make up only 14 per cent of the male Canadian population at large.

I'm certainly not saying all young men are potential criminals. There are lots of great teens and youths out there, striving to make our community a better place. And all demographic groups have members who behave badly. But young men are far more likely to be involved in violent crime -- especially the kind of brainless, drunken killings we've been plagued with of late.

Echo Generation
More young men are committing violent crimes in our community, in large measure because we have so many more young men. In part, it's a function of what demographers call the "baby boom echo." We have more Edmontonians in their late teens and early 20s right now because they're the children of the baby-boom generation. Because there were so many baby boomers, their offspring make a mini-boom of their own. But at this point, people in their early teens and 20s actually outnumber baby boomers in our city. That's because Edmonton is also a magnet for young people, who come here to go to school or to find work. And there are more and more of them moving here every day.

Of course, all this demographic context is cold comfort to the families of the recent victims. It doesn't do you much good to know that your son's death can be explained statistically. But it is vital that we understand the true nature of the problem we're facing, if we're going to come up with any useful solutions.

It's too easy for those of us over 30 to look at the past month's news stories and bluster that "kids today" are so much worse than they used to be. It's too easy to blame this spate of murders on video game violence, or family break-down, or Whyte Avenue bars. It's far too easy to rail about lenient judges and the need for vigilante justice.

Youth crime always spikes when youth populations rise. The baby boomers fueled historically unprecedented rates of violent crime when they entered their teens and 20s. Should we be surprised that their echo is no different? The problem is that young Edmontonians have far easier access to guns and knives than ever before. They're exposed to drugs like crack and crystal meth, unknown a generation ago. And today's young people are more affluent. They have more money, and more stuff, whether they've earned it themselves, or received it from overly indulgent parents. It's a toxic mix.

In a perfect world, we'd raise all our young people in strong, healthy families where they'd grow up with the ideal balance of watchful supervision and unconditional love. We'd imbue our children with deep ethical values and teach them the dangers of alcohol, drugs and rage. But our world is far from perfect.

We need to hold the young people who commit such terrible crimes responsible for their actions. But we need to hold ourselves responsible too. If our families, our schools, our society have failed to teach the most basic moral lesson -- Thou shalt not kill -- we have a problem no law or court can fix. Would it help to put more cops on the streets? Hire more Crown prosecutors? Reduce bar seats on Whyte Avenue? Crack down hard on underage drinking, be it in bars or at hall parties? Implement tougher sanctions for people carrying knives and guns? Probably.

But with Edmonton's weird population skew, with our crazy economic boom drawing more young people here, and putting more mad money in their pockets, there will be no quick fixes. We're in the eye of a demographic storm. And we're in for a rough, rough ride.

Paula Simons
23 November 2006

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=b6606d12-13b4-4164-b189-cfdc067a76bf

home / Previous feature