Take teens' threats seriously: Canadian expert.

School Violence

Lots of teenagers become annoyed with their peers, parents or teachers - some may even threaten violence.
Very few of them, however, will ever follow through on their threats. The trick is to be able to predict when the threats pose a real danger.

While there is no profile for school shooters, there are signs that can help determine who is likely to follow through on their threats, explained J. Kevin Cameron, one of Canada's leading authorities on assessing the threat of school violence. A recent case in Saint John displays many of the "high-risk markers" that he looks for in evaluating risk levels.

Mr. Cameron, who led the crisis response team following a school shooting in Taber, Alta., has helped develop a threat assessment program for schools. He also trains police, school and mental health officials in assessing whether troubled teens will follow through on their threats.

The one constant is that those who do follow through "always become threat-makers before carrying out a plan."
That's why it's so important to take all threats seriously.

"Plenty of kids have gone that far and never carried out the act. For others, of course, it was part of the process. It's interesting because, while there were a number of concerning markers, I still couldn't tell you now whether or not these kids were actually high risk to do this without being privy to all the information in this case."
Some of the details of the case certainly raise alarm bells, said Mr. Cameron.

Earlier this week, police uncovered a plot to kill students and teachers at Saint John High School.
Three teens have been charged with possessing explosives. In a bail hearing on Wednesday for two of the teens, Const. Rick Russell said the plot was uncovered after two students reported it to the school principal.
The officer said the students had planned to take over the school's administration office, kill everyone in the office and then call a list of students to the office and kill them.

Fantasizing, talking, thinking and planning usually precede action

Const. Russell told the court that the teens had planned to use firearms and explosives in their attack. He said they had already been making and detonating pipe bombs and had become much more sophisticated.

Two teens were released from jail on Wednesday after the bail hearing. They are scheduled to appear in court on April 4 to set a trial date. The third teen had already been released to appear back at a later date.
Mr. Cameron said the alleged plot as described in court by the officer includes many of the high-risk elements he looks for when determining whether a teen will follow through on a threat.

One of the best predictors is the escalation of past behaviour. He said people don't just wake up one day and decide to go on a killing spree. Usually there is a "tremendous amount of fantasizing, talking, thinking and planning" before the execution.
"It's very clear that serious violence is evolutionary. Meaning that no one just wakes up one day and snaps and thinks 'This would be neat to do.' "
He said it's not unusual for young people to talk about their plans or threats.
"The function of communicating ideas and intentions to others is to see what others think . . . No one commits serious violence unless they feel justified in attacking the person."

In court on Wednesday, the court heard that the two youths had discussed their plans with at least three other youths that were named in court.

Mr. Cameron said officials should also be concerned when teens actually practise what they're threatening.
In the case of Saint John High School, the teens had been experimenting with making and discharging pipe bombs and had even videotaped some of the experiments.
"Without a doubt, those are high-risk markers. It doesn't mean they would do it, but those are high-risk indicators because it means that they are engaging in behaviours consistent with the threat."
Mr. Cameron said it would be different if a teen were to threaten something they couldn't possible achieve, like to "nuke" the school.
He said it's also a concern when young people incorporate elements of other school shootings into their plans.

"If someone is significantly drawn to elements of someone else's violence . . . it can be an actual identification with the aggressors who have perpetuated the other crimes."
But even the presence of these "high-risk markers" is never a guarantee.
"The majority of these kids do not want to commit serious violence. That's often why they engage in cries for help," he said.

Often, a simple intervention by an adult is enough to thwart their plan.
" . . . if key adults pick up on the signs and indicators then you can avert the level of risk very quickly just by responding to their cries for help."

In a paper published in the fall of 2002, Mr. Cameron wrote that "school shooters and many of the students threatening to copycat the shooting have some similarities.
"First, they see themselves as bullied, ostracized and rejected by their peers and often teachers and parents as well. Second, many have relatively nonviolent pasts. Third, they are suicidal or have a desire to die. Fourth, they have at least sub-clinical or atypical depression or other mental health disorders that have gone untreated because many of these students were not viewed as a problem prior to their making a threat."
In fact, Const. Russell told the court on Wednesday that the teens talked of being bullied and having suicidal thoughts. Neither youth has a criminal record or any involvement with the police.

Mia Urguhart
18 March 2005

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